The COVID-19 pandemic was the biggest external shock to the economy since the independency of the country. The impact on economic growth is expected to a result in a growth rate of - 3 % in 2020
Other than the oil price shocks of 2009 and 2015, the pandemic has not only affected demand but also the supply side of the economy through a couple of lockdowns. Lockdowns, albeit necessary to contain the pandemic, are especially disruptive for businesses that are reliant on physical customer contact.
The Kazakh government acted very quickly to the threats of the pandemic with the proclamation of a state of emergency and various measures to contain the spread of the virus and assist businesses and individuals that have been affected by those measures, especially through a generous fiscal package.
However the final impact of the fiscal and monetary stimuli will largely depend on the further development of the pandemic. A long lasting series of further lockdowns into the first half of the next year will bear hte risk of a long lasting slowdown in economic growth. Traditionally the global economic situation has a high impact on the Kazakh economy with the stioll high dependency on demand for natural ressources.
Economic Outlook
Current projections see a contraction of the GDP by 3 percent in 2020 and a recovery of around 4 percent in 2021.
Inflation pressure is expected to remain but will slow as the effect of exchange rate depreciation gradually fades away. Inflation this year will remain above the central bank target of 6 percent, following depreciation of the tenge.
With respect to foreign investement, we expect an even more positive development in 2021. A siginifcant number of our clients have signed contracts for construction and assembly projects that have been delayed or halted mainly by the travel restrictions for foreign specialists. With vaccination available, we expect most of them to start entering realisation phase in the first quarter of 2021.
Provided that economic and fiscal stimuli will be prolonged, the rebouncing demand will lead to further option for projects and local direct investments. Once the global economy will start to recover.
RSP in Kazakhstan
We at RSP are still very positive with respect to mid-term and long-term development. Showing our committment, we have - despite the numerous obstacles - finalised the construction of our own office premises and have already moved in. We are looking forward to seeing you there, at
Samal 2,
bldg. 33A, 21. floor
050051 Almaty.
The opening party is postponed not forgotten!